Chaos followed recent earthquake devastation in the Aegean Sea.
The magnitude 7.0 quake of Oct. 30 was the deadliest temblor of 2020[i] – killing 116 in Turkey, and claiming the lives two teenagers in Greece crushed by a wall on the island of Samos[ii]. More than 1,050 people were injured[iii]. Three hundred buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, and a wall of water as high as 19 feet threatened islands along the coasts of Turkey and Greece.
Officials in Turkey pushed for more education – but even they noted that knowledge alone will do little to guard people against the hazards of poorly designed buildings.
“Turkey is a country in which earthquakes are very common,” Planning and Mitigation Branch Director Ibrahim Seren told the media. An official with the nation’s Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, he added that 92% of the country is built around an active fault, and at least 95% of the population lives there.[iv]
Although families prepare for earthquakes as best they can, Seren said, not much can be done if the buildings are weak. Most of the buildings damaged in the quake were constructed in the 1990s, based on outdated codes from as far back as 1975, he added.[v]
How Would California have Fared?
Turkey is among several earthquake-vulnerable countries like Chile, China, Italy, Mexico, and Peru to adopt technologies to keep buildings from failing in a quake, the New York Times reported. Without that preparation, the nation would have suffered much more from this year’s devastating blow.
“(But) the innovations have been used only sparingly in the United States,” the newspaper reported. “Seismic safety advocates describe this as a missed opportunity to save billions of dollars in reconstruction costs after the inevitable Big One strikes.” [vi]
How large is a 7.0 earthquake?
For comparison’s sake, the Northridge quake of 1994 measured 6.7 on the Richter scale and damaged more than 82,000 structures, killed 60 people and injured 9,000 more. [vii]
Last year’s Ridgecrest earthquake measured at 7.1 – but thankfully struck in a sparsely populated area.
If a quake of that magnitude were to strike today in the Greater Los Angeles region, one in every 16 buildings – some 300,000 structures – would be damaged, the United States Geological Survey determined.
The odds of that happening are much more likely than one may suspect. The USGS estimates a 99% chance in the next 30 years of another Northridge-size earthquake occurring in California.
Even more dramatic is the 45% likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years. A quake of that size is projected to cause widespread devastation with recent estimates putting damages caused by a magnitude-7 earthquake on the Puente Hills fault running through downtown Los Angeles at more than $252 billion with thousands killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.[viii]
Right now, we’re seeing the severe economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Imagine how much worse it could be if a major earthquake hit California’s urban areas.
The human toll in terms of deaths and injuries would be staggering. Collapsed buildings and infrastructure could take years – even decades – to fully replace. Much of our housing would be destroyed, and many businesses would likely never reopen.
Leaders Taking Action: The Resilience Advantage Webinar Series
Leading business organizations, government, and nonprofit representatives have partnered on a mission to educate property and businesses owners as well as community leaders about earthquake risks facing California, and the practical and cost-effective solutions that can be taken now to avert disaster.
The series, called “The Resilience Advantage,” airs live, with archived on-demand video of previous segments. The next series will take place Dec. 9. Visit optimumseismic.com/the-resilience-advantage/ for more information.
Each episode features interviews with experts and panel discussions surrounding a variety of topics ranging from structural engineering and economics, to social justice and the environment.
The series is sponsored by Optimum Seismic in cooperation with the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, Los Angeles County Business Federation, and the U.S. Resiliency Council.
“Business leaders understand the potentially serious economic impact of not being prepared for a disaster,” Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Maria S. Salinas said in reference to the webinar series. “Becoming resilient is important, not only for major corporations but also small businesses.
“We have seen from the last several months the impact of an unplanned emergency on our economy,” she added. “Let’s ensure businesses are prepared so that an earthquake doesn’t create another challenging disaster in California.”
FEMA estimates that $4.4 billion in earthquake losses occur each year in the United States. This figure is extremely conservative and includes only capital losses, ($3.49 billion), and income losses, ($0.93 billion). It does not cover damage and losses to critical facilities, transportation and utility lifelines or indirect economic losses. According to the study, 84 percent of the nation’s annual losses are expected to occur in California, Oregon, and Washington, with California alone accounting for $3.3 billion of the costs.[ix]
The risks are real – and we cannot afford to wait for disaster to come before we take action.
Fortunately, over the past 40 years, structural engineers have developed innovative technologies to reduce damage and injuries by making buildings more earthquake resistant. Building science and materials have improved dramatically during that time, and public awareness about the importance of seismic resiliency has grown significantly, particularly in the last 10 years.
Today, we are at a tipping point. The economics of retrofits and resilience work. Even the simple result of eliminating potential costs for earthquake liability judgements can mean the difference between solvency and bankruptcy for building owners and the businesses that occupy the structures.
We now have the science and technology to better protect buildings, businesses, employees, and tenants. The costs of seismic retrofits are affordable, increasing the return on investment associated with this work. Many smart building and business owners are taking the obvious next step: investing in resilience to stay in business after a major earthquake.
Resilience: Cheaper than Disaster
Imagine we were back in 2018, but with knowledge of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic to come. What investments would you have made to lessen the blow of the natural disaster?
We need to do the same when facing our earthquake risks.
A recent Stanford University study showed that performing some of the most common or practical retrofit measures on buildings produces $4 of national benefit for every $1 invested. “These results show that society can cost-effectively protect itself from natural hazard risk in multiple ways, both by mitigating past problems and by preventing future ones,” the study found.[x]
Resilience isn’t just good for society, it’s good for business.
Beyond the direct benefits a retrofit has on a building’s value, (as the structure likely to withstand external threats for many more years), there are other strong economic factors for building owners to consider when weighing the cost benefits of a seismic retrofit. These include:
- Reduced liability associated with damage, death, and injury
- Loss of income when a building gets red-tagged
- Financial obligations tied to the original mortgage loan
- Demolition costs including abatement of asbestos and lead
- Reconstruction costs and cost overruns
Researchers at Caltech have determined that for every dollar spent in retrofitting soft-story structures, property owners could expect to save up to seven dollars, and that study didn’t factor in loss to contents, alternate living expenses or deaths and injuries – all of which would have significantly increased the cost-to-benefit ratios. In a separate study, the university determined that seismic retrofits are cost-effective when projected annualized loss would be reduced by 50 percent or more at a cost that would equal no more than 10 percent of the replacement cost of a building.
FEMA found similar cost benefits in a two-year analysis of seismic retrofit scenarios applied to a variety of building types in locations throughout the United States.
The study found high benefit-to-cost ratios for California, including a scenario of a tilt-up warehouse building in Hayward. “In this example,” the study found, “the benefit/cost ratio is about 10 without the value of life and about 12 with the value of life. The benefit/cost analysis suggests that retrofit is strongly justified economically, even without including the value of life.”[xi]
A Business Case Study
Anheuser-Busch experienced significant damage in a quake, took action to retrofit their buildings and saw little to no damage in a larger quake 20 years later.
In the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, the King of Beer’s Van Nuys brewery was damaged, interrupting beer production and costing the company significant losses in market share.
To avoid a similar business impact in a future earthquake, Anheuser-Busch initiated a detailed risk assessment and seismic retrofit of their $1.3 billion brewery facility. The goal was to limit property damage, business interruption and market share losses following future severe earthquakes.
The facility was seriously tested during the 1994 Northridge earthquake, but none of the retrofitted structures or equipment sustained significant damage. Buildings not retrofitted were damaged and needed $17 million in repairs. Yet because all essential structures were retrofitted, the brewery was able to return to operations in a week, with no loss of market share.
Anheuser-Busch estimated direct property losses of about $350 million plus another $750 million for direct and business interruption losses, a total over 60 times the cost of the retrofit program. In addition, market share losses were estimated to exceed the direct and business interruption losses[xii]
Beyond just the costs of structural repair that can be avoided with seismic retrofitting, it’s important to consider other potential losses as well:
- Liability associated with damage, death, and injury
- Loss of income when a building gets red-tagged
- Financial obligations tied to the original mortgage loan
- Demolition costs including abatement of asbestos and lead
- Reconstruction costs, code upgrades and cost overruns
Incentives for Resilience
Financial incentives such as preferable loan and insurance rates, density bonuses, expedited permitting, reductions in development standards and relief from nonconforming provisions can also incentivize building owners to perform upgrades that promote building safety and revitalize communities for greater economic impacts.
Saving lives is the ultimate concern when preparing for an earthquake, but building retrofits are highly effective at protecting property, preserving the flow of business, jobs and commerce in a community, and safeguarding against the disaster that a major earthquake could bring.
Knowledge is the first step to making an informed decision.
If you own or are responsible for a business or building at risk of damage in an earthquake, I strongly encourage you to watch these webinars, and contact Optimum Seismic for a free assessment and consultation about your property.
Lives – and your livelihood – may depend on it.
[i] Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2020
[ii] Reuters, Death toll climbs to 100 from devastating Aegean quake – myRepublica – The New York Times Partner, Latest news of Nepal in English, Latest News Articles (nagariknetwork.com)
[iii] Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2020
[iv] Ithaca Week, “Officials push for education while Turkey patches up after another earthquake.” https://www.ithacaweek-ic.com/turkey-earthquake-education/
[v] Ibid.
[vi] New York Times, “Buildings can be designed to withstand earthquakes, why doesn’t the U.S. build more of them?” https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/03/us/earthquake-preparedness-usa-japan.html
[vii] United States Geological Survey, “Progress toward a safer future since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.” https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3092/pdf/fs2014-3092.pdf
[viii] Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, “Loss Estimates for a Puente Hills Blind-Thrust Earthquake in Los Angeles, California,” Earthquake Spectra, Volume 21, No. 2, pages 329–338, 2005. https://earth.usc.edu/files/htdocs/papers/tjordan/2005_Field_EQSpectra_LossEstimates.pdf
[ix] Govcon.com, https://www.govcon.com/doc/annual-us-earthquake-losses-estimated-at-44b-0001
[x] Stanford Urban Resilience Initiative, http://urbanresilience.stanford.edu/
[xi] FEMA, “A Benefit Cost Model for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings.” https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1403228695368-210f1be4cbc6a07876a737a02c69a543/FEMA_227_-_A_Benefit-Cost_Model_for_the_Seismic_Rehabilitation_of_Buildings_Volume_1.pdf
[xii] California Seismic Safety Commission, Earthquake Risk Management Mitigation , https://ssc.ca.gov/forms_pubs/ssc_1999-05_risk_success.pdf
