Many Californians live in denial about earthquakes, laughing off their threat to our lives and livelihoods. After all, we’ve survived them before—why should the next one be different? The stark reality is that earthquake preparedness should be a priority for everyone. We need to ask ourselves: Are we prepared at home, in our businesses, hospitals, schools, and communities? How challenging would recovery be from the mega-quake scientists warn could strike at any moment? What would be the economic impact on my investment properties and the economy of our region, state, and nation?
Once we consider carefully the potential losses we could incur from one or more serious earthquakes, we need to plan what we can do before they strike to protect our investments, incomes, buildings and tenants. Then we need to act. Now.
The Los Angeles Times recently quoted a U.S. Geological Survey simulation of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Southern California predicting the complete or partial collapse of 50 brittle concrete buildings housing 7,500 people and another five high-rise steel buildings — of a type known to be seismically vulnerable — holding 5,000 people. That’s 12,500 people. And that does not count many other people lost or injured in an estimated 100,000 buildings in California considered even more vulnerable to earthquakes — soft-story apartment buildings built before the 1980s.
From an economic standpoint, international modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates losses from a quake of that magnitude at upwards of $300 billion. That figure was supported by data analytics firm CoreLogic, which said an earthquake of magnitude 8.3 along the San Andreas could damage up to 3.5 million homes, resulting in reconstruction costs of $289 billion.
What are the odds of The Big One striking?
The most comprehensive statewide analysis of earthquake probabilities determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in California over the next 30 years is 99.7%. The fault with the highest probability of such earthquakes is the southern San Andreas — 59% in the next 30 years. For powerful quakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater, there is a 37% chance that one or more will occur in the next 30 years in Southern California, according to the Earthquake Country Alliance, an organization comprised of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (a joint venture of the National Science Foundation and United States Geological Survey).
Throughout California, there are a frightening number of buildings that have been deemed vulnerable to collapse in a major earthquake (and thousands of people living, working and doing commerce in them). This includes wood-framed, soft-story structures built before 1978, tilt-ups constructed prior to the late 1970s, and some non-ductile and steel moment frame buildings. Guarding against their failure or collapse in an earthquake serves the interests of everyone in many ways:
- Save lives and prevent Injuries
- Protect the assets, investments and revenue of building owners
- Preserve California’s economy
- Protect existing affordable multifamily housing
- Protect communities and vital public services
Every building protected from earthquakes enhances our resilience – the capacity to spring back quickly from hardship – for tenants, their employers, hospitals, government services and the building owners themselves. Every building saved means families can remain in their homes, and employees can go to work. It’s another step away from the chaos and crime that comes when a community shuts down.
And there are case studies that show seismic retrofits are a cost-effective measure for businesses and property owners.
When the Anheuser-Busch brewery in Van Nuys suffered significant damage in the 1971 Sylmar earthquake, the company invested $11 million in retrofitting structures on site to withstand the next major temblor – which came in 1994 with the Northridge quake. Even though the brewery was located just a few miles from the epicenter of that devastating 6.7-magnitude temblor, none of the retrofitted structures in the compound was damaged. The brewery was quickly returned to nearly full operations following minor cleanup and repairs.
Anheuser-Busch estimated it would have suffered direct and business interruption losses of about $750 million from the Northridge earthquake without the retrofits, the Seismic Safety Commission reported after the fact. This averted damage of more than 60 times the actual cost of the brewery’s retrofit program.
Preparing for the “Big One” is not a personal matter left to individual building owners to decide. Widespread death and destruction impacts everyone. It’s a cause of the utmost social and economic concern. Ultimately, seismic retrofits of our vulnerable buildings keep the economic engine of society moving forward.
Are you concerned about the safety of your building? If so, contact Optimum Seismic to arrange a complimentary assessment of your building’s earthquake safety. We’ll get you the information and answers you need to make decisions that are right for you. Visit optimumseismic.com, or call us at 833-978-7664 to learn more.
