In 2019, California saw a dramatic rise in homelessness, with over 21,300 additional people living without shelter—a 16.4% increase, surpassing the combined total of all other states, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. By January 2020, this number had climbed another 7%, bringing the total homeless population to 161,000.
Think of how those numbers would grow if a major earthquake struck the area. Estimates are up to 36,000 households would be displaced. The impacts could be devastating, especially given many of our region’s most vulnerable structures are also home to our most at-risk populations.
Arizona in 2018 conducted a full-scale earthquake drill to deal with an anticipated influx of 400,000 Southern California evacuees going there to seek shelter following massive earthquake devastation.
The reason for this anticipated wave of nearly a half million refugees is simple. The majority of buildings identified as at risk of failure in an earthquake are older, more affordable apartments, as well as commercial buildings that house a wide variety of businesses providing jobs.
The loss of these structures would bring severe economic disruption with many thousands left without a roof over their heads or a job to provide for their families.
It’s a dire situation, particularly in more densely populated areas, the Association of Bay Area Governments determined.
If many of a region’s affordable housing units are lost in an earthquake, “a constrained market may drive up the cost of housing even further. Loss or damage of housing that results in increased costs… will likely increase the number of permanently displaced Bay Area residents.”
Socio-economic imbalance
When it comes to earthquakes, older structures make up most of California’s dangerous building stock. Much of that building supply is used for housing and lower-wage commercial operations such as manufacturing, logistics and service-related industries.
These structures, because of their age, are more affordable to rent. But many apartment buildings constructed in the mid-1970s or earlier – are typically soft-story apartments built over open parking areas. These buildings – constructed under outdated building codes — frequently have structural deficiencies putting them at risk in a major earthquake.
That puts lower-income residents – seniors, working families and minorities — living in these structures at greater risk of death and injuries in a quake.
It also increases the risk of these vulnerable populations being left homeless in a disaster without the resources necessary to recover quickly from the loss of their homes.
Should a major earthquake strike again in the Long Beach area as it did in 1933 – and we all know that will happen someday – many of these structures could be lost or seriously damaged. If these buildings are left as they stand now without being seismically retrofitted to withstand earthquakes, we could see serious economic loss in the Long Beach area as potentially thousands of people could be left without a roof over their heads or a job to provide for their families. Would they be forced to leave the area, to double-up with extended family or friends, live in transitional housing, or find a place somewhere on the streets? Time will tell.
Building safety benefits everyone and should not be limited to those who can most easily afford it. I encourage local leaders to seek out options to help owners make their buildings safer in order to protect apartments and local businesses before the next major earthquake strikes.
The Optimum Seismic team has the technical knowledge and professional experience necessary to do your balcony inspection or earthquake retrofit right. Visit optimumseismic.com or call 833-978-7664 to arrange a complimentary assessment of your building.
